Realistic Self-Appraisal

Know thyself!

Where are you at in your poker game? Does it seem like you understand the game, the concept of pot odds, the underlying math, but you still never seem to come out on top? Sometimes the problem isn’t necessarily a lack of poker knowledge, but rather, a lack of YOU knowledge.

For every winning poker player, there are several losing ones. For a given group of losing players, there is a handful that have the knowledge of poker to become winning players eventually, but who seem to be missing something that they can’t quite identify. It is important to understand that poker, ultimately, is about three things: 

1.) Your opponents. 

2.) “Luck,” regarding getting dealt the right cards and not running into monsters. Of course, if you are a properly bankrolled and skilled player for your betting stakes, luck will only matter in the short-term and you will be a long-run winner.

3.) YOU

The cards and how you, “Run,” over a period of time is not an impediment to you becoming a winning poker player. If you play against those who are less skilled than you are, and you play the proper style of game against them, even the other players don’t matter all that much. Given that you are intelligent enough to play the game well and are willing to put in the work to understand the game, YOU are the biggest impediment to yourself.

Fortunately, with a little bit of self-knowledge, you will be able to become your own greatest asset at the tables. Not everyone can play at all levels of stakes and with players of all levels of talent. Generally speaking, the lower the stakes, the worse the players, so the first step to being a long-term winner is not to play above your level.

Naturally, you will want to play above your level sometimes to improve and learn directly from players who are superior to you, but in order to be a winner, the vast majority of your action needs to come against players against whom you are superior.

The difference between poker and house-banked casino games is that the latter typically have a fixed house edge (with some exceptions, such as progressives) whereas poker has a variable edge working against you that is impossible to quantify strictly, but feasible to qualify. The first thing working against you is the fact that the house has a rake, which is the percentage that it takes out of every pot, but that is going to be negligible to a very skilled cash game player.

Because poker is a player-banked game and the long-term results of all of the other players at each table you will play are not quantifiable known, the only thing that you have to look at is how you perform at certain levels of stakes and in what types of games you perform well or poorly. In reality, some players will play a fundamentally stronger game than you do while others will play a fundamentally weaker game, so the actual edge working against you (or in your favor) is going to vary based upon who else is at the table. For example, most players reading this could readily admit that if they were in a five-way cash game with the likes of Daniel Negreanu, Phil Ivey, Doyle Brunson and Phil Laak that the inevitable result would likely be leaving the table broke. That much is evident. But, are you willing to make that same admission when you are playing a bunch of non-professionals at a table that is simply better than you are? Remember, if you don’t see a sucker at the table, chances are you’re it.

Importance of Tracking:

One of the fundamental things that you can do to improve as a poker player and determine the types of stakes that you should be playing is to determine whether or not you got your money in good relative to the pot when there is a showdown. For that, you will want to keep track of the history of all hands in which you are involved that go to showdown and determine whether or not you had a positive expectation at each round of betting. An easy tool to use in making this determination is the Wizard of Odds’ Texas Hold ‘Em Hand Calculator. 

With that simple and easy-to- use tool, you can determine what your probability of winning was at all levels of Texas Hold ‘Em play against any hands that were known as the result of a showdown. Granted, you can’t quantify in multi-way pots hands that are unseen, but you might just assume (as is more often than not the case if you make it to showdown) that hands that folded were probably worse than yours... unless you’re a real maniac.

With this tool, it’s simple, let’s say that myself and two players showdown the following hands: 

Myself: As,10h 

Player 2: 9s,9d

Player 3: Qh,Jh

Okay, so imagine that I am in the big blind at $1/$2 limits and the player with nines raises to $20, that draws a call from Qh,Jh and then I follow up with a call. There is now $61 in the pot (we’ll say the small blind folded).

If we pop those hands into the calculator, we see that we have a 31.42% probability of winning the hand with a 0.33% chance of some sort of tie. The decision you made may have been based on how the other players play, (perhaps 9-9 is an aggressive pre-flop raiser all the time. So 9-9 is on the high end of his range that he would make a raise like that) but mathematically, we can see if you have the best of it at this point. You do this by assuming there is no further betting and it just gets played out to the end:

(41 * .3142) + (10.50 * .0033) - (20 * .6825) = -0.73315

In this case, you are expected to lose $0.73315 on this hand, but you made the right decision. It was a close one, but compared to the guaranteed $2 loss that folding would have resulted in, this is slightly better. You were in a tough spot in this hand, facing an expectation of losing regardless of your decision, but you made the decision that resulted in the lowest expected loss.

...Or did you?

Again, this is where player tendencies come into play, but now you have to ask yourself if you might have gotten QJ out of the hand with a shove, and how much would that have helped you? One of the most difficult things for a player to learn, especially if the player has a tendency not to play aggressively, to begin with, is how to be selectively aggressive. Let’s say you have $180 in your stack and shove all-in, the nines call, but QJ folds, what happens to the expectation?

The first thing is you are now 44.28% to win the pot, which is now up to $381, and 0.37% to tie: 

(201 * .4428) + ($10.50 * .0037) - (180 * .5535) = -10.58835

OUCH! You now have an expectation of losing $10.58835, despite the greater probability of winning. What would have happened if both players had called?

(361 * .3142) + (90.50 * .0033) - (180 * .6825) = -9.12515

That’s where the pot odds come into play; you are expected to lose $9.12515 in the case of shoving and having both players call. Again, you have to make some assumptions about what the other players might have done, but it is good to consider all cases. 

Even though you have a lesser probability of winning the hand with both of the other players still in it, if they have the stack to call you, you’re better off if they both call rather than QJ folding. The reason for that is actually pretty simple: You have QJ beat already (regarding expectation) which is to say that if it were just your hand against QJ, you’d have the advantage. Furthermore, relative to the pot if 9-9 calls you, the $20 is not enough, “Dead Money,” to make it positive.

That’s where stack sizes can come into play if 9-9 is playing short-stacked and you think you can get QJ out of the pot (say they called very tentatively) then the dead $20 will comprise a greater portion of the overall pot if 9-9 calls thereby improving your value. In the case of both of those players having you out-stacked (unless it is a tournament type situation) your best course of action is to call and see a flop and your second best course of action is folding. In a tournament setting, a player might shove here rather than get, “Nickel and dimed to death,” with blinds, but the blinds would also be greater relative to a low stack, percentage wise.

What decision would you have made as the short stack? While I certainly get a ton of decisions WRONG, I can honestly say I would have called this and taken a look at the flop.

Let’s go to the next stage of play and say the flop came out Jd, Kc,5s, the QJ player leads out with $20 and the second player (nines) figures the first player must have a matching face card and folds. You have a gutshot straight draw and a probable overcard, so let’s check out our value scenario here, you definitely don’t shove, but do you call?

(.2303 * 61) - (.7697 * 40) = -16.7397

This ended up being a Hell of a jam, but as it turns out, the best thing that you can do here is call. There are two reasons why:

1.) In this case, the total pot is up to $101 and over 20% of that ($21) is dead money.  

2.) If you do not call, you definitely lose $20.

You don’t want to raise because you do not want to get more money in the pot than necessary, but protect the money you already have in there. We’ve all heard, “Don’t chase bad money with good,” but in this case, you’re not betting a total of $40 to win $40, you’re betting a total of $40 to win $61

To what extent should you keep this up, though? Let’s imagine that our next card is a completely inconsequential two of diamonds:

QJ is feeling good about his hand at this point, after all, you’d have probably raised if you had a King and he knows the deuce doesn’t help you at all. The only way it does is if you went in with 2,2 or 2,x, but the chances are that’s not going to happen because you would not have called $20 to protect a blind with 2,x and with 2,2, you’d have probably been out after the flop. There might be a value bet here with QJ trying to get a little out of you to protect your money, or he might just shove all-in to draw a fold and not leave the last card up to chance.

Let’s say he throws a value bet of $20 out there, what happens now?

(81 * .1364) - (60 * .8636) = -40.7676

This is an extremely close decision, but the best value comes from folding and taking the $40 loss as you are expected to lose $40.7676 if you call. It’s definitely close enough to justify a call for a few reasons:

1.) You obviously don’t know what exactly he has. 

2.) You know that the deuce almost certainly doesn’t improve him, either. 

3.) You already know what action you are going to take after the River. If you hit an Ace, you’re going to try to get as much money as possible, any other card, and you’ll fold. This is especially true considering the player is value-betting, he is doubtful to see an ace on the River and only then decide to shove all-in. Since you’re going to fold anything except an Ace, and you’re obviously in no position whatsoever to bluff (he’s been the aggressor the whole hand) you know that you’re not going to put any more in on this pot without a pair of Aces.  

Look at all of this to break down your actions on just one hand!!! That’s the thing, though: Until you reach a certain level of skill, you should be spending more time analyzing your own play than you do playing! Beyond that, take in as much information on how other players play, both professionals on TV or live stream or at the table you are playing, as you can. The best information comes from hands that are shown down. Did the player in that hand make the right decision? Is that the decision you would’ve made?

Remember, you’re not always going to get your money in good or make the best-expected value decision on every single hand, so don’t get discouraged. In fact, the very concept of bluffing entails, “Implied expected value,” which is to say what probability you assign to the possibility of a player folding... by its very nature, bluffing means deliberately NOT getting your money in the good mathematically!

The first part of knowing yourself as a player is to determine whether or not you are willing to put in the cumulative weeks, months and perhaps years of work to strengthen your game to the point where you are making the best expected value (or implied) decision at your level of stakes. You don’t have to get it right every time, but if you’re consistently missing the right choice by a mile or suffering an expected loss every single session you play, it’s time to take a good hard look at your mathematical understanding of the game...because it’s la

Remember, results don’t matter. Expected results matter.  

Playing Tendencies:

Speaking of which, it’s always difficult to tell if you are playing aggressively enough in those situations where you are getting your money in good, could you have gotten more? For many (non-maniac) poker players, one difficult hump to get over is to play selectively aggressively enough as many players automatically default towards a non-terribly aggressive style. One hint that you should be playing MORE aggressively is if you ever find yourself in situations in which you simply called when you had positive EV on the hand. 

The reason why is calling is the worst thing you can do when you have positive EV (based on the pot), especially in a heads-up situation. On the one hand, if your raise would get called, then you have left some money on the table in many cases.  On the contrary, if the other player has bet and would otherwise have folded to your raise, that’s money that you get with positively zero variance that you might have otherwise lost.

You will quickly discover that you are too aggressive (or simply a call station) as a player if you keep records and find that you get your money in bad (or worse than what could have been) on a frequent basis.

Either way, unless you are playing at any except the top level, from a pot odds and EV standpoint, you should not find yourself consistently WAY south of where you should have been on hands that make it to a showdown.  Remember, this is true at EVERY decision level, it doesn’t matter whether you ultimately win the hand or not.  At a minimum, I would say that you want to find yourself making the best EV decision 75% of the time, if not more.  

Another great resource you can visit, particularly for online poker, are the poker Forums at LatestPokerBonuses.com.

Good Poker Players:

While it is a pretty simple thing to say, other than professionals, “Good poker player,” as a self- description is often all sound and fury signifying nothing.  

What does that mean?  Well, for example, here are a couple of statements about myself with significance:  

1.) I am better than a break-even tournament poker player against local competition of limited skill.

2.) I am a slightly better than break even low-limit live limit Texas Hold ‘Em player at the lowest stakes.  

3.) I understand the fundamentals of a No Limit Texas Hold ‘Em cash game and play pretty well, but it’s all over as soon as I take a bad beat due to my emotions.  

Even with a full understanding of the math, I get upset when I get outdrawn by something stupid when I KNOW that I made the best EV play and had a better than 50% probability of winning the hand by a long shot. There is nothing more frustrating than playing a hand as well as you possibly can, doing everything right, trapping your opponent and then getting sucked out upon.  Unfortunately, that’s why I do not play much live No Limit Texas Hold ‘Em (other than tournaments) I simply don’t have the mentality for it.  

It’s important to realize that there is no such thing as a generally, “Good poker player,” as a blanket statement, barring professionals.  That statement probably only applies to a few professionals, in fact.  The reality for us non-professional poker enthusiasts is that there are probably several poker variants that we’ve not even heard of, much less played.  

That’s also a good reason not to get discouraged if you enjoy the game of poker, in general.  If you’re putting in the homework, tracking the stats, analyzing your play and still coming up short (regarding expectation) then move down in stakes.  If you move down in stakes and are still not playing anywhere close to expectation, (meaning you’re making the wrong decisions more than 25% of the time) then try tournaments or a different game.   Here’s the thing: Do you know what the similarities are between seven-card stud and Hold ‘Em?  I can tell you what they are, and other than being betting games, there are only two:  

1.) They are both called poker.

2.) The ranking of completed hands is the same.  

The two games have totally different math, totally different procedures, and totally different strategy.  Some players would argue that seven-card stud is the more difficult game, but I almost think that it is easier if you are more probability/mathematically inclined and less about poker games in which psychology is a major component.  With seven-card, you can look at your hand and the cards showing of all the other players and get a rough idea as to the probability of improving your hand based on what you have and what is showing.  You can look at the hands of other players (combined with their play and showing cards) and gauge what they may have and how likely they are to improve.  On the home game level (non-professionally, obvious) I know people that are very good seven-card stud players (at the home level, again) and atrocious at Texas Hold ‘Em.

If you can get some enjoyment out of a different game and you love the competitive aspect of poker, then don’t be afraid to try out a new game and develop your skills if you feel like you have done everything you can and are still playing a losing game at your current game/stakes.  

Your Psychology:

Finally, psychology will always remain an important aspect of poker regardless of the variant that you are playing.  Perhaps that’s not quite as much the case online, (fewer tells, obviously) but it still exists.  The time it takes other players to make decisions, (if you’ve played enough to be familiar with them is one example)  but the most important psychology is yours!  

Other players will come and go, but there’s one player who will be at every table you ever play: you!   Do you get bored, if you do, what are the circumstances of you getting bored? 

More importantly, what are the effects?  Unless you’re in a tournament, the thing to do when you’re bored is get up and walk away from the table, or log out if you’re online. Take a walk, do something else for a bit.  

Don’t go jumping over to another table hoping to catch some better hands because you’re likely disadvantaging yourself by doing that, unless you know the table you are at is generally too good for you.  The reason I consider it a disadvantage is because, if you have played long enough even to get bored in the first place, then you should have had plenty of time to study the other players and now you have a general notion as to how they might bet and in what situation.  Why go from a table where you know the competition to one where you might know nothing?  

Furthermore, if you do move to a different table hoping for better cards, then you don’t know the first thing about poker...even though you might know other stuff.  The cards (or RNG) don’t care what table you are sitting at!  The only way you’re more likely to get dealt pocket rockets within a given timeframe is if you are playing at a table with fewer players, but that’s only because you’ll see more hands within the timeframe in question!   Are you the type of person that straight loses your shit over a bad beat, especially when all-in or with an all-in opponent?  I know I am, which is why I don’t typically play NLHE cash games, and if I do, I’m all out after taking a bad beat.  I simply know I won’t play effectively anymore until I cool down.  

That’s another thing that you can do, log times of day that you are playing and your general mood.  If you feel like you’re starting to get bored (but decided to keep playing anyway) write down that you feel a little bored, or tired, whatever your feelings, write them down.  

Sometimes you can even play more poorly than usual when you’re in an extremely happy mood.  You might overvalue your hands, bet more aggressively than you should and thereby fail to minimize your expected loss when you have to choose between one bad decision and another.  

Not only will it help to learn under what circumstances you shouldn’t be playing, but you might also learn a little something about what times of day and situations in which you are playing your best game.  Even keep track of how much sleep you got the night before, and how long you’ve been awake, so you can keep track of how rested you need to be to be at your best.  For some, you can be at your best game after six or eight hours of sleep and a single cup of coffee, for me, I need to be up for a good few hours to play at my best...so early afternoon, or so, into the evening.  

By keeping track of all of these things, eventually, you will reach a point where certain circumstances and tendencies move from being slight correlation into definite causation.  You’ll be able to determine exactly when you are at your best concerning fatigue and mental state, play as much as you can during those times and then start to see how your results come in when you’re at your best.  

You might come to find that you ARE a winning poker player, but only during a few hours a day when you are at your freshest, most alert and in a fairly neutral mood.  That’s perfectly fine.  It’s true with just about anything.  Eventually, by improving your overall skills, you will also improve the times and circumstances under which you can play a winning poker game because your base skills will have improved.  

Conclusion:  

At the poker table, the only constant is you.  Granted, there are times and tables where the other players are going to be too good simply, but anyone willing to put in the time and work should be able to excel in most games at the lowest limits.  

If you find yourself ever blaming Lady Luck for dealing you the cards you get or causing you bad beats, it’s time to take a good hard look in the mirror.  You are going to take bad beats from time to time, but one bad beat is not what makes up the entire body of your lifetime of results.     How much do you know about yourself?  

Could you tell me, at least to the dollar, how much you have won or lost lifetime?  Year-to- Date?  This month? 

Can you give me session results for game played, the number of players at the table, the limits and your buy-in for every table at which you’ve sat for this month?

If you’re to be a successful poker player, that is the information you should be able to turn to whether it be a notebook or computer file and be able to tell someone immediately...AT A MINIMUM.  If you can tell someone that, then you know the first thing about your game.  When you’re talking about playing online, you have the time and the resources to keep the type of records that will tell you how you should be playing v. your mathematical expectation.     Until you definitely know yourself, it doesn’t matter how well you THINK you know the game or the other players.