Play a Hand with Me – C/C or Value Bet on a Scary River?

$0.50/$1  No Limit Holdem

UTG  $97
CO  (Hero) $101
BTN  $130
SB  Wavefuncti0n $95
BB  debe90 $100

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is CO with

1 fold, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players)

Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

Turn: ($19.50, 2 players)

Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14

River: ($47.50, 2 players)

Hero ?

In my opinion the play until the river is really standard. You open with a preflop raise and have to value bet the turn and the river. Bet sizing should be 2/3-3/4 pot on both streets. The hand is really easy to play until the river. But what should you do on this scary river? That is what will make the difference to your outcome.

Do you check, with the intention to fold, check/call, or do you bet again?
In my opinion you have to bet again and fold to a raise. Why?

If you do not bet, villain will check back with a lot of hands, which can make a hero call on this river. For example QJ, Q9, 99, 88 and sometimes maybe a smaller pocket pair. His range consist more of bluff catcher hands, than value betting hands. Since you checked the river, he will have a free showdown. He cannot really expect you to call with a worse hand on this board. Of course if he has KQ, QJ he will maybe try a bet, but also calls if you make that bet, too.

Since he checked the turn, he usually cannot be too strong, his range consists mainly of weaker hands and you have to try to gain more value against these hands.

If villain raises your river bet, you will have a hard time, but a fold is ok. Not too much villains will try to bluff you here, since they usually have some showdown value. KJ, or maybe an AJ is not out of question (and can try a desperate river bluff with these hands), but usually villain has some showdown value here. So most of the time he will fold or call, hoping to catch a bluff. And some villains really hope for a bluff on these kind of boards, since sometimes you will play the same way with AK or AJ, too.