Beyond Starting Hand Charts: Maximizing Your EV with Weakness

The trick to becoming a better poker player is a willingness to diversify your skillset and always aiming higher than your current level. Because poker is a game with new players coming in and formulating new moves all the time, it's almost suicidal to assume you know everything and stop learning.

Of course, learning the fundamentals such as expected value, hand reading and value betting is essential when you're first starting out in the game, but what should you do when you've mastered the basics? One of the best ways to enhance your skills and take your game to the next level is to listen to the advice of others.

Whether it's watching a live Twitch stream from a pro like Jason Somerville or reading a dedicated strategy piece by a mid-stakes grinder, you should always be willing to listen to a player who has been there and done it. However, what about those times when the pros don’t have much to say or you're tired of learning passively and want to test some moves out for yourself instead?  

Taking Some Inspiration from Casino Gaming

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A great way to break the mold and get the edge over your opponents is to look beyond the poker world for some inspiration. If you were to look at the world of chess and its major organization, the World Chess Federation (FIDE), you could find a number of players and skills to inspire you. Indeed, if you watched Magnus Carlson win the FIDE World Rapid Chess Championship at the Bolle Meierei in Berlin back in 2015, you no doubt would have picked up some tricks. However, as you're no doubt aware, the online poker world is continually expanding and, today, online operators are starting to incorporate a wider range of games into their platforms.

From sports betting to casino games, you can now enjoy a range of betting options when you ante-up online. Naturally, online poker's links with casino games such as blackjack aren't simply a product of a proximal relationship. Both games actually share a number of characteristics and it's these characteristics we can pick out and exploit in order to enhance our poker skills. Although there are many crossover skills between blackjack and poker, the one we're going to focus on in the rest of this article is the concept of maximizing your EV. Thanks to the dynamics of both games, there's always subtle ways you can exploit a strong position at the table to increase your EV and win more money.

How Blackjack Splitting Can Maximize Your Poker EV

Basing our lesson on blackjack's splitting and doubling down options, we're first going to look at the concept of maximizing value and then look at how it can be applied in blackjack as well as poker.

In essence, maximizing your expectation and, therefore, value (the amount you can win) in the gambling arena means making the best moves when you're in an advantageous position. At the blackjack table, splitting and doubling are two ways in which you can maximize your expectation, but only if you make the right moves at the right time.

Similarly in poker, playing hands on the button is one of the best ways to maximize your EV because you'll always be last to act post-flop. However, simply playing every hand you can from the button won't improve your expectation any more than splitting and doubling every blackjack hand would. In fact, if you don't consider the actual dynamics at all times, these opportunities can actually cost you money in the long run.

When it comes to blackjack, the rules of the game allow you to split any pair and double down on every total. However, according to the game's basic strategy, you should only make these moves when two conditions are present – either when you're strong or the dealer is weak. When you're strong in blackjack (i.e. you have a pair of tens or aces to split/you have a starting total or 10 or 11), it's almost always advisable to split and double down (unless the dealer is showing a ten). The reason for this is that your hand is extremely strong and, therefore, you should be willing to add an extra bet and play for more money in this situation.

Indeed, many blackjack pros would say you should never split a pair of sevens. However, if the dealer is showing a four then this can be a profitable move. Similarly, 7-2 isn't a hand you should be playing in many spots, but if the only player in the pot is weak and you're in position, then it can be a great move to make and one that will increase your overall EV, especially if you get to advertise your holding at showdown.

Picking Up on Weakness

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Another reason to split or double, and perhaps the one that's most interesting for poker players, is when the dealer is weak. When you speak to any blackjack pro, they will often tell you that a dealer is "weak" if they're showing a 3, 4, 5 or 6. Given the rules of the game (a dealer must draw to a total of at least 17) and the dynamics of the decks in play, a dealer will usually have to take a card when they're showing one of these cards.

Any time you have to hit in blackjack, you're at risk. Therefore, the weakness of the dealer is actually a strong position for you as a player and that means you should be willing to make bold moves such as splitting or doubling.

Applying this concept to poker, this idea relates extremely well to the idea of betting in position when you sense weakness in your opponents. Like splitting and doubling in blackjack when you're strong, there are obvious times to bet when you have a premium hand (i.e. JJ+, AJs+ and AQ+). However, there are times you can bet with almost anything in position.

Although you can't see your opponent's cards like you can do in blackjack (nor can you see physical signs of weakness when you play online), you can observe tells and betting patterns to see if your opponent is weak and, therefore, be in a position to maximize your expectation, even with weak hands.

Consider Your Hand in Context

Of course, to truly exploit the weakness of an opponent and maximize your expectation with weak hands, you should ensure the action is heads-up (unless you're playing against Phil Ivey). Although you may need to apply some pressure earlier in a hand to manipulate the action and create this dynamic, it's something you need to bear in mind when you're employing this strategy.

As more and more online poker players dabble in casino games, ideas such as exploiting weakness and maximizing EV will become more common, even in low stakes games. Indeed, because online poker sites have made it easier for players to move between the two worlds, more poker players will be looking at blackjack concepts and how they can be employed at the poker table.

Hopefully we've shown you that the idea of exploiting the dealer in blackjack (by splitting and doubling when they are weak) is one that's easily applicable in poker. Although you should use a pre-flop starting hand chart to guide your play, there are times when you can play any hand and win the pot.